Running the simulation…
Risk & scenarios
Running the simulation…
You have a 2% chance of dropping below $50,000 before Nov 8. ±0.1%
Independent conversion scenarios with uncertain placement dates. The P10 trough is $89,626 in the week of Oct 26.
| What converts | Chance | Cumulative | Lowest cash | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlas Corp + Pinnacle Search | 40% | 40% | $213,177 | Most likely |
| Pinnacle Search only | 17% | 57% | $126,510 | |
| Atlas Corp + Pinnacle Search + Redwood Partners | 13% | 71% | $228,231 | |
| Atlas Corp only | 7% | 78% | $143,177 | |
| Pinnacle Search + Redwood Partners | 6% | 84% | $156,510 | |
| Atlas Corp + Ironclad Inc. + Pinnacle Search | 4% | 88% | $228,231 | |
| Nothing converts | 3% | 91% | $54,933 | Thin |
| Atlas Corp + Redwood Partners | 2% | 93% | $173,177 |
One-at-a-time sensitivity on lowest cash.
Pinnacle Search converts, and Atlas Corp, Ironclad Inc., Redwood Partners don't close, and Northbridge Capital's placement slips to 2026-11-19.
That path bottoms out at $89,626 in the week of Oct 26 — the 10th percentile across simulated futures.
Middle band: typical paths. Outer envelope: 90% of simulated outcomes stay above the lower edge each week.
Threshold $50,000 shown dashed. Sampled paths overlaid in grey.